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Old 05-06-2008, 05:03 AM   #1 (permalink)
uncle9
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Dollar China's economy

just read a Asset Research paper by Societe Generale published last week on China's economy.
construction in 2008-2009 is expected to grow at least 40-50% YoY and GDP growth at ard 14-15% YoY and inflation forecasted to reach new highs

reminds me of some forecasts made earlier by some prominent people


Quote:
China’s world-beating rally might be a “bubble” ready to burst, said Alan Greenspan, the former U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, and he is supported in this view by Li Ka-shing, Asia’s richest man. The billionaire investor Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, last month urged investors to be ‘cautious.’

Tim Leung, a fund manager at IG Investment in Hong Kong, said, ‘If there is a slump in China, the risk of investing in some companies whose earnings are closely linked to the market will increase. When there is a slump in the market, retail investors do much less trading.’ Tim Leung said he did not own China Finance shares.’

All this because China Finance Online may lose its rank as the best-performing foreign company listed in the United States.
American depositary receipts for the company, China’s biggest provider of online financial data, have dropped more than 30 percent this month, as the nation’s benchmark CSI 300 index fell 12%.

Li Ka-shing, chairman of Hutchison Whampoa, said in May that the Chinese stock market ‘must be a bubble.’

Asked if China was in a state of ‘irrational exuberance,’ Greenspan told a conference of insurance executives in Boston on Oct. 30: ‘I think so.’

China’s benchmark stock index, the CSI 300 has risen this year by 85%. The CSI has a valuation of 43 times estimated earnings. By comparison, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong is at 16 times.

Source: International Herald Tribune
Quote:
Li Ka-shing(李嘉诚) :作为中国人,我很为内地股市担心,现在内地市盈率竟达50至60倍,绝对是泡沫。内地经济发展无疑较香港 更快速,但这样的市盈率仍过于惊人。香港股市的市盈率尚不算高,还在合理水平,QDII的投资额只占港股总 市值1%,影响不会太大。如果内地经济有什么波动,香港也会受到影响,希望大家可以量力而为。
so do you subscribe to popular theory that China's economy will slump right after the Olympics or that the growth in construction will keep GDP buoyant for the next few years?

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Last edited by uncle9 : 23-06-2008 at 02:01 AM.
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Old 09-06-2008, 08:39 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Question Re: China's economy

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Originally Posted by uncle9
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just read a Asset Research paper by Societe Generale published last week on China's economy.
construction in 2008-2009 is expected to grow at least 40-50% YoY and GDP growth at ard 14-15% YoY and inflation forecasted to reach new highs

reminds me of some forecasts made earlier by some prominent people






so do you subscribe to popular theory that China's economy will slump right after the Olympics or that the growth in construction will keep GDP buoyant for the next few years?
i think the Chinese wont let their economy slump at least after Olympics...
anyway it s after the Olympics tat provide opportunities for the future growth....
but the current downturn s rather good to a certain extent tat it dun ballon the bubble further....

mayb anyone care to share more....


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Old 09-06-2008, 09:50 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Default Re: China's economy

there'll definitely be future growth and the chinese economy won't slump, especially being spurred on by increased construction spending in the aftermath of the tragic earthquake

construction won't be limited to sichuan province alone. the central govt is considering a nationwide audit of its public buildings' earthquake-resistance-worthiness(i made up this word haha) and expects major rectification works/rebuilding, with focus on public schools and maybe hospitals and municipal buildings. inflation may be a problem tho, especially rising food prices that may cause instability

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Old 09-06-2008, 11:59 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Default Re: China's economy

Actually my friend who in heavily vested in China, told me China's economy is not as strong as it seems. It has to self substain it's economy. They are the producer, if the world largest consumer (US) goes down,it is unlikely not to go down as well.

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Old 10-06-2008, 12:35 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Cool Re: China's economy

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there'll definitely be future growth and the chinese economy won't slump, especially being spurred on by increased construction spending in the aftermath of the tragic earthquake

construction won't be limited to sichuan province alone. the central govt is considering a nationwide audit of its public buildings' earthquake-resistance-worthiness(i made up this word haha) and expects major rectification works/rebuilding, with focus on public schools and maybe hospitals and municipal buildings. inflation may be a problem tho, especially rising food prices that may cause instability
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Actually my friend who in heavily vested in China, told me China's economy is not as strong as it seems. It has to self substain it's economy. They are the producer, if the world largest consumer (US) goes down,it is unlikely not to go down as well.
good insights...
thx 4 sharin....

meantime we jux need to watch n see, esp durin tis period....
i haf frds who earn quite a lot from China mkt for the pst few yrs...
but tis yr seem to b a challenge regardless where u invest in...
quite an excitin yr ya....


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Old 21-06-2008, 02:14 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Default Re: China's economy

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i haf frds who earn quite a lot from China mkt for the pst few yrs...
their earnings come from capital ventures or financial markets?
would u like to share more?

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Old 21-06-2008, 02:17 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Default Re: China's economy

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the world largest consumer (US) goes down,it is unlikely not to go down as well.
haha i think you have just summarised the world's economy

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Old 21-06-2008, 10:03 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Default Re: China's economy

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haha i think you have just summarised the world's economy
Have been very busy. I don't know abt u, we are experiencing a standstill, very frightening. Very busy putting out fire. More is expected to come

My days in Singapore are limited.

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Old 23-06-2008, 02:31 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Default Re: China's economy

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Have been very busy. I don't know abt u, we are experiencing a standstill, very frightening. Very busy putting out fire. More is expected to come
what fires have u been experiencing?

commod prices are a mess in china, esp copper, coal & iron. prices keep increasing. domestic demand and construction growth gobbling up everything. imports don't reach on time. cos sea freight schedules are so packed and there are only that many bulk carriers. resorting to transshipment now, eating into profits &@#%^?~

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Old 23-06-2008, 02:52 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Default Re: China's economy

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Actually my friend who in heavily vested in China, told me China's economy is not as strong as it seems. It has to self substain it's economy. They are the producer, if the world largest consumer (US) goes down,it is unlikely not to go down as well.
this is also what i have heard of from people staying in china


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Old 23-06-2008, 09:08 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Default Re: China's economy

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what fires have u been experiencing?

commod prices are a mess in china, esp copper, coal & iron. prices keep increasing. domestic demand and construction growth gobbling up everything. imports don't reach on time. cos sea freight schedules are so packed and there are only that many bulk carriers. resorting to transshipment now, eating into profits &@#%^?~
I cannot close any deals recently. Recently must really use brains to think. Haiz. Singapore is pretty messy inself. Hopeless little country. My friend must have made alot recently. They are physical traders, the same guy who donated 100mil to sichuan. No wonder he ask me need money or not.I have been out from morning til late at night everyday,

Today is a better day. Close a couple of deals. Smaller margins. I believe this will persist for awhile. Please take care.

I don't know where the money is going. In or out of the country but I can tell u frankly, we are betting our money elsewhere. This time round dunnno can survive or not. I already prepare myself for the worst. You know my industry is very price sensitive.

I still do not know how the freight will affect me yet. My factory is in China. The clothes seems to do pretty well with very tight schdules. Properties don't talk abt it.

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Old 27-06-2008, 01:28 AM   #12 (permalink)
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