Singapore's dollar may be an "attractive" currency to fund carry trades as interest rates fell below those of the Taiwan dollar, previously widely borrowed to pay for higher-yielding assets, Citigroup said.
Singapore's benchmark interest rate for lending fell to 2.5 percent from 3.4 percent at the start of this year. That is lower than Taiwan's 3.125 percent, making it cheaper for investors to borrow Singapore dollars to take advantage of other currencies with higher yields.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore uses its dollar, rather than interest rates, to guide the economy and control inflation. That means the central bank will buy or sell the currency to keep it stable for economic growth, according to Chua Hak Bin, an economist at Citigroup.
"What is nice about the Singapore dollar is that the monetary policy is centered around the exchange rate and the MAS steps in to curb the volatility," Chua said.
"That insurance element is quite critical." Japan's yen and the Taiwan dollar are the two worst performers of the 16 most-active currencies this year as traders borrowed them to fund purchases of higher-yielding securities. The yen has dropped 2.5 percent against the US dollar and Taiwan's currency fell 0.7 percent.
The Bank of Japan on July 12 kept its key overnight lending rate at 0.5 percent.
The Singapore dollar, which closed yesterday at S$1.5157 (HK$7.81) against its US counterpart, has risen 1percent this year. The island's currency may gain to S$1.50 by the end of 2007 and climb to S$1.47 at the end of June 2008, Citigroup forecasts.
Singapore's dollar is also less volatile than the yen, making it a better currency for the carry trades, Chua said.
"The lower volatility reduces the risk of using the Singapore dollar as a funding currency." BLOOMBERG
source:
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_d...d_str=20070717