Calis

BUYER BE WHERE?

Economy's growing, but retailers aren't seeing benefits

TODAYonline, Monday, January 29, 2007
Lee Ching Wern
chingwern@mediacorp.com.sg

WHEN you have an economy charging ahead — it grew by 7.7 per cent last year — you would expect cash registers to be ringing non-stop as more people hit the shops.

But the reality has left economists and retailers scratching their heads.

Domestic private consumption was estimated to have grown by just 2.8 per cent last year — a meagre increase over 2005's 2.5 per cent, when the economy grew by 6.4 per cent, and a dip from the 5.9 per cent in 2004, when economic growth hit 8.7 per cent.

"Private consumption has been the weak link in this current economic expansion," said Dr Chua Hak Bin, Citigroup Economist.

Figures released earlier this month showed that retail sales, excluding vehicles, grew by 4.4 per cent year-on-year in November — a figure which is not fantastic, say economists. Consumer lending, too, was lacklustre, expanding by just 2 per cent year-on-year, according to the central bank.

It seems the CEOs and bankers, who are snapping up luxury homes and Lamborghinis, are not splurging enough to make up for the average Joes' lack of spending.

"The big boom has benefited companies more than workers. The economic benefits are going to those who are well-to-do and who own capital — not the average person," said Dr Chua.

And the impending Goods and Services Tax (GST) hike from 5 to 7 per cent at one go — as signalled by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong — is likely to dampen mass spending even further.

One bit of hope: With this increase in revenue, some analysts are hoping the Government will lower the personal income tax rate, especially with a corporate tax cut already on the cards for next month's Budget Day. The trend in other countries has been to lower both rates, and Mr Lee hinted last week that Singapore could not buck global trends if it wanted to compete for investments.

However, private consumption has always lagged behind growth in gross domestic product, and this is a structural issue worth looking into, said Mr Manu Bhaskaran, Head of Economics Research, Centennial Group.

"Has globalisation led to a more skewed income distribution?" he asked.

According to Urban Redevelopment Authority figures for 2006, prices of high-end private property in prime districts have surged by 17 per cent. Yet prices of mass market condos and Housing and Development Board flats have grown by only 4.2 and 1.97 per cent, respectively.

Despite having the smallest population in the region, Singapore topped the charts in the sales of luxury cars of the Ferrari, Porsche, Lamborghini, Rolls-Royce and Bentley variety.

Yet retailers and restaurateurs say that sales have not been up to mark. One local owner of a restaurant chain told Today: "Surprisingly, sales in December were not as strong as they were in the peak season in previous years. We're waiting to see if things will improve over the Chinese New Year period. It's very puzzling because there's all the hype in the news about a growing economy — yet we're not seeing it."

Mr Song Seng Wun, a regional economist with CIMB-GK Research, noted that the arrival of budget airlines means that people can easily go overseas to shop.

Overseas expenditure of Singapore residents tripled between 1998 and 2005, according to Monetary Authority of Singapore statistics. One in two persons aged 15 and above, or a total of 1.4 million people, made at least one overseas trip in 2005.

More are spending in neighbouring countries such as Thailand and Malaysia, where a dollar can go much further. Rival shopping cities, such as Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur and Dubai — all of which do not impose a GST — are giving Singapore a run for its money.

Said Citigroup's Dr Chua: "Retail sales in Hong Kong, which recently decided not to adopt the GST, are running at almost double the pace of Singapore's. For a small open economy, where residents are travelling abroad, a high GST may have wider negative consequences."

Even so, he is optimistic of this year's outlook, expecting domestic spending to accelerate to 4.5 per cent. "The job market is tightening and wages are creeping up. Together with the picking up of the mass residential market, these factors can, hopefully, offset the impact of the GST hike," he said.

Mr Song agreed: "We must remember that last year's consumption growth rate is coming off the high base of 2004. Things will get better."

Source

djchris

The rich wun be shopping much in SG...
I've got rich frens who goes other countries for shopping sprees with their family every quarterly.

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Calis

That's the truth. They'll go Taiwan and Hong Kong where there's so much more things to buy from shopping malls. The retail experience there is very different and more pleasant than SG. Malaysia's and Thailand's currencies are weak against the Singapore dollar, naturally people will fly over there on budget airlines to shop and holiday too.

Truth to tell, the retail scene in Singapore is stale. All the shopping malls carry the same brands and retailers. Though it is convenient for consumers, it is no longer a refreshing and exciting shopping/spending experience anymore. And it's a challenge for Singapore retailers to bring in new brands and fresh concepts due to high start-up costs and a small local market.