chinkai

Charlton 0 - 2 Tottenham

With this result, Charlton will join Watford in the Championship next season.

Now that two of the three has been confirmed, let us look at who will be the most likely to join them.

CURRENT STANDINGS
(Team-Goals scored-Goals conceded-Goal difference-Points)
Sheff Utd=====(31)=====(53)=====(-22)=====(38)
West Ham=====(34)=====(59)=====(-25)=====(38)
Wigan=====(35)=====(58)=====(-23)=====(35)

For a start, the teams are ranked in this order:
1. Points
2. Goal difference
3. Goals scored
According to the EPL rules, if two teams stand equal based on the three rules above, they are deemed to be "of equal position".

WHAT'S LEFT?
Final day fixtures - West Ham will visit Man Utd, while Sheff Utd will play Wigan at Bramall Lane (Sheff Utd home).

A MATHEMATICAL LOOK
Set the variables first.

Man Utd x
West Ham y

Sheff Utd p
Wigan q

What must Wigan do to stay up?
DEFEAT Sheff Utd. The Man U-West Ham result is of no concern to them because in this scenario it is highly possible that West Ham will go down.

What must West Ham do to stay up?
The simplest scenario is for them to get at least a point at Old Trafford.

Failing that, they will have to pray that Wigan beats Sheff Utd by more than (3 + x - y) goals. For instance, if West Ham loses to Man Utd by 2 goals, then Wigan will have to win by 5.

If Wigan wins Sheff Utd by EXACTLY (3 + x - y), then Sheff Utd must not score more than (3 + y) - ie, p < 3 + y.

However, if p = 3 + y, then according to the EPL rules, West Ham and Sheff Utd will be on EQUAL POSITIONS. There has been no such precedent in the history of the EPL, but if such a case happens, a playoff is the most likely deciding factor.

What must Sheff Utd do to stay up?
They must win or draw with Wigan - this means that Wigan will go down.

In case they lose to Wigan, (q - p) < (3 + x - y).

The worst case scenario for them is to fail the above condition and p > 3 + y. (See the underlined paragraph above for the case if p = 3 + y.) Anything worse and they will go down.

My predictions
Man Utd 1
West Ham 0

Sheff Utd 2
Wigan 1

In this case, Wigan will be relegated.

All the best to the three teams in their survival battles!

皆さん、こんにちは。僕はチンカイです。どうぞよろしくお願いします。


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